Portugal Tourism Strategy 2035: Approved but Unpublished, and the €53bn Is a Minister's Estimate

ET27: six targets, two met early, one missed, three never measured

ET27 was published on 27 September 2017 in the Diário da República (1st series, no. 187). It names Turismo de Portugal as managing body and asks it for annual progress reports. The resolution also required an evaluation and possible revision by the end of 2022. We found no published progress report and no published evaluation. TravelBI and the Turismo de Portugal document library were only partly reachable, so this records an absence in what we could read and does not prove that none exists.

The quantified targets are few. ET27 sets 80 million overnight stays and €26 billion in receipts for 2027, a seasonality index falling from 37.5% to 33.5%, a doubling of tourism workers with secondary or post-secondary qualifications from 30% to 60%, more than 90% of residents seeing tourism's impact as positive in the densest areas, and more than 90% of firms adopting efficient energy, water and waste practices. It sets no target for regions, employment, GDP share or funding instruments. Employment and export share appear only as diagnosis.

Receipts are the clean case. Banco de Portugal travel credits, as published by Eurostat, were €25,470 million in 2023, which is 98.0% of the target, and €27,743 million in 2024, or 106.7% (derived). The 2025 figure of €29,119 million is 112.0%. A €27 billion target is often quoted, including by the president of Turismo de Portugal in October 2024. The resolution says €26 billion. The higher figure comes from the 2021 recovery plan Reativar o Turismo (RCM 76/2021) and from ministerial restatements. Both were passed in 2024.

Nights depend on the series. The 80 million target was set when INE counted about 53.5 million nights for 2016 in tourist accommodation, and the ET27 chart starts at 48.9 million for 2015. INE has since widened its series. On the narrower tourist-accommodation series that excludes campsites, nights were 77.2 million in 2023, 80.3 million in 2024 (the flash estimate) and 82.0 million in 2025. On the all-types series that includes campsites, Eurostat shows 84.9 million for 2023, so the target was passed a year earlier. The resolution does not name the INE table behind the 80 million. Met in 2023 or 2024 is the defensible statement, three or four years early. Our annual statistics article sets out the 2025 base on each definition.

Seasonality is the miss. INE measures it as the share of annual nights in the three busiest months. That share was 36.9% in 2023 and 36.4% in 2025, which INE calls the lowest since 2013. Eurostat's July to September share, which we derived from monthly data, fell from 40.5% in 2016 to 38.3% in 2019, 36.9% in 2023 and 36.3% in 2025. Neither series reaches 33.5%. The starting point is also unusable. ET27 gives 37.5% for 2016 in its targets chapter, 35% in its diagnosis and 38.6% for 2015 in a chart, and the 2021 recovery plan restates the base as 36.3%. Progress against the official baseline cannot be measured. Turismo de Portugal's own web page describes the aim as the "lowest seasonality ever", a phrase that holds only on a series starting in 2013.

The qualification, resident-sentiment and firm-practice targets have no published outcome in anything we reached. An annual progress report would have carried them, and the Council of Ministers resolution asked for one.

The pandemic fell between the strategy and its test. The recovery plan Reativar o Turismo (RCM 76/2021) budgeted €6,112 million, of which €4,075 million ran through Banco Português de Fomento, and committed to exceeding ET27's goals. Its own Covid scenario put 2023 receipts at €18.3 billion and 2024 at €20.2 billion. The outcomes were €25.5 billion and €27.7 billion. The recovery plan's scenario was too cautious about the bounce-back, while the ministerial forecasts for 2025 and 2026 discussed below were too optimistic.

The sustainability companion has the same measurement gap. The Plano Turismo +Sustentável 20-23 set goals such as 50% more establishments with efficiency systems, 25,000 businesses in the Clean & Safe seal, 50,000 professionals trained and 500 international references. An execution report is dated 22 July 2024 but we could not read its results. The goals exist and the public scoring does not.

What ET2035 is, and what exists in writing

Work on ET2035 began in autumn 2024 with a conference cycle called "Construir o turismo do futuro" across the mainland regions between 3 October and 25 November 2024. The Confederação do Turismo de Portugal (CTP) counts 58 speakers and about 2,500 participants, plus eight thematic workshops with around 100 representatives and an online platform for submissions. Machado said in October 2024 that a draft would go to public discussion in January 2025, and Turismo de Portugal's page lists contributions closing in early January with a public consultation planned for the first quarter. We found no evidence that a consultation on a draft text took place.

The dates then slip. On 29 September 2025 Machado told the CTP conference in Tróia that measures would be presented "this quarter". On 2 December 2025, at the APAVT congress in Macau, he announced the launch for 18 December, and the Lusa agenda piece on the day gave no venue, no targets and no document. Presstur reported on 14 February 2026 that the strategy "continues without a date", and Carlos Abade, the president of Turismo de Portugal, declined to give one at the AHP congress in Porto. On 8 September 2026 Machado and Abade described "10 agendas and 50 measures" at a Marketeer debate. Lusa had reported twelve measures or programmes in December 2025. We found no list of them.

What can be stated is short. The horizon is 2035 and the document succeeds ET27. Officials describe a "virtuous triangle" linking economic value, social and territorial cohesion, and residents' quality of life, and summarise the aim as growing in value, in cohesion and in competitiveness. Machado said on 22 October that it "wants to correct regional asymmetries". No governance model, monitoring indicators, funding envelope or approving instrument has been published. A web search found no Council of Ministers resolution for ET2035, but we did not search the Diário da República directly, so the approval body and date are unstated and not disproved.

The numbers ministers attach to it

Three figures need testing against data. The first is €53 billion. From 2025 receipts of €29,119 million, reaching €53,000 million in 2035 requires 6.2% a year in nominal terms (derived). Receipts grew 8.0% a year from 2019 to 2025 and 12.1% a year from 2015 to 2019, though both periods include recovery or catch-up. The pace in 2026 is slower: Banco de Portugal's January to August credits were up 3.2%. If 2026 closes just above €30 billion, as Machado also said on 22 October, the remaining nine years need about 6.5% a year. At 2% inflation, €53 billion in 2035 is about €43.5 billion in 2025 euros, a real rate of 4.1% a year. The number is reachable on the 2019 to 2025 record and demanding on the 2026 pace.

The second figure is 50 million international tourists. INE counted 29.9 million non-resident tourists in 2025, so 50 million needs 5.3% a year (derived). Divide €53 billion by 50 million and each tourist spends about €1,060, against about €974 in 2025 (derived, mixing a Banco de Portugal series with an INE headcount). That is growth in spend per tourist of under 1% a year in current prices, which is a real decline. The two numbers together describe a volume strategy, while the language around them is about value.

The third is 20% of GDP. Machado said at the CTP conference on 29 September 2025 "about 20% of national GDP" and on 8 September 2026 "if our strategy is right, in 2035 we will have 20% of GDP in this industry". On 2 July 2024 the version was about 20% and over €56 billion by 2033. That €56 billion mirrors the 2023 estimate of total contribution from the World Travel & Tourism Council (€56.4 billion, 21.1%), a model figure that counts indirect and induced effects. On 26 January 2026 Machado gave 14% direct and 16% with indirect effects, and on 24 February 2026 about 12% direct and up to about 20%. The statements contradict each other and none matches an INE measure. Our tourism GDP and employment article sets out which of the four official and model figures to quote.

Near-term ministerial forecasts have run ahead of outcomes. In November 2024 the government forecast 9% growth in tourism for 2025 (Diário de Notícias), and receipts rose 5.0%. On 11 February 2026 Machado said receipts would grow 5 to 6% and nights 2 to 2.5% in 2026. By August the figures were 3.2% and 1.5%. Reaching 5% for the year needs about 9% growth in September to December and 6% needs about 12% (derived). The monthly tracker follows the INE and Banco de Portugal releases that will settle it.

Turismo de Portugal: the money behind the targets

Turismo de Portugal's 2026 activity plan budgets €570.1 million, up from €481.0 million in 2025. That is an 18.5% rise by our arithmetic; a 19.6% rise is the figure we saw reported, and we could not reproduce it. About 68% of the 2026 budget, €387.2 million, is the institute's share of gambling revenue. State Budget transfers are €38.4 million and EU or recovery funds about €13 million. Promotion takes €175.5 million (Marca Portugal €140.8 million plus Destino Portugal €34.7 million, derived), business programmes €165.9 million, incentives €59.3 million and training €44.7 million. The plan counts 808 staff.

The State Budget view is different. The 2027 proposal allocates €517 million to tourism, down €15 million or 2.8%. Projection of Portugal abroad falls from €442 million to €429 million and regional promotion from €90 million to €88 million. Machado called it "an adjustment" caused mainly by the end of the recovery plan and of other programmes Turismo de Portugal will not run next year. He said regional tourism entities keep about €16.4 million from the State Budget and that total support to them and to external promotion bodies will be around €30 million. These figures cover different budget lines and we could not reconcile them from public documents. Parliament's final vote is scheduled for 24 November. A strategy built around raising value is arriving alongside a smaller promotion line, and the strategy's own funding envelope is not public.

The funding structure matters for the targets. Two thirds of the institute's money is gambling revenue, so promotion and financing capacity follows casino income and is not tied to tourism receipts. The 2026 plan has no line that links spending to the ET27-style outcomes of nights, receipts or seasonality, and no annual progress report is public.

Cohesion is the stated centre of ET2035, so the instruments aimed at the interior are the test of intent. Turismo de Portugal's Linha +Interior supported 37 projects with over €16 million in a round announced on 22 September 2025. The later rounds we found were 12 projects and €6.9 million in April 2026 and 10 projects and €2.4 million in July 2026. The rounds differ in design and we cannot say they are comparable, but the amounts do not show a rising commitment. On markets, Turismo de Portugal ran 19 offices covering 24 markets in 2024 and announced new offices in Korea, Australia, Mexico and the United States in December 2025. We found no budget for the new offices.

Regional, market and ranking targets already in force

The clearest quantified plan now running is regional. The action plan for Porto and the North, published by CCDR-N in May 2024, sets 2030 targets of 8 million guests, 16 million nights, €1.25 billion in total accommodation revenue and seasonality of 32%. The 2025 outcome reported by ECO and the IPDT was about 7.7 million guests, 14.7 million nights and €1.154 billion, which is 96%, 92% and 92% of the targets (derived). The plan's nights definition may differ from the figure reported. Accommodation revenue is INE's measure, so it cannot be added to Banco de Portugal's receipts. Our Norte statistics article carries the regional detail. Centro's plan targets 13 million nights in 2030 and a RevPAR of €35, against about 6.5 million nights in 2019, and we could not verify its outcome. We found no 2030 numeric target for Alentejo, Lisbon, Madeira or the Azores.

Market targets are rarer. Turismo de Portugal said at ITB China in May 2024 that it wanted 500,000 Chinese guests and 1 million nights by 2026. The 2025 outcome was 333,079 arrivals and 596,719 nights, or 67% and 60% of the goals (derived), so the target looks out of reach in 2026. The Asian markets article has the series. Lisbon's tourist-tax revenue shows a smaller gap, about €83 million in 2025 against a council target of €87.5 million, and the tourist-tax article in this series sets out that count.

The one target with a ranking attached is the World Economic Forum's Travel and Tourism Development Index. Portugal was 12th in 2024, 0.03 points behind tenth-placed Switzerland (4.78 against 4.81, from a secondary source). The Economy Minister, Manuel Castro Almeida, set a top-10 aim on 22 September 2025 without a date, and Abade told TTG on 13 November 2025 that Portugal should get there "within the next three years". The government says the 2026 edition, published on 25 September 2026, puts Portugal 11th. We could not find Portugal in the WEF pages we read and found no 2026 score, so the 11th place is a government statement.

How other southern European countries set targets

Quantified national tourism targets are rarer than the ET27 record suggests. Spain's España Turismo 2030 strategy, approved on 21 October 2025, has 15 goals, 50 measures and 148 actions and no numeric target in the page we read. Italy's Piano Strategico del Turismo 2023-27 has four objectives and five pillars with no quantified targets we could find. Croatia's sustainable tourism strategy to 2030, adopted on 16 December 2022, showed none on the page we read. "Greek Tourism 2030" is a Deloitte study for INSETE, a private body, and not an official strategy, and we could not read its quantitative section.

Against that background ET27 was unusual in naming numbers and being measurable, which is why its record can be tested at all. If ET2035 relies on verbal ambition and ministerial estimates, Portugal will look more like its neighbours and will be harder to hold to account. A strategy that publishes no indicators gives analysts nothing to score in 2030.

A strategy can be held to account if it answers five questions in writing. Which measure does each target use, and from which series? What is the base year and value? What is the date? Who reports, and how often? What happens when the number is missed? ET27 answered the first three imperfectly and the fourth on paper, and the public record shows no answer to the fifth. The 2035 figures quoted so far answer none of them, because the measure is unspecified (receipts or total contribution), the base is implicit, and no reporting body is named.

What this means for travellers, businesses and analysts

Travellers. The strategy changes little at the gate yet. The stated direction is value over volume and regional spread, and no published document says what that changes for visitors. Seasonality is 36.4%, and August still has about 3.2 times the nights of January on Eurostat's monthly data (derived), so the shoulder months from April to June and in October remain the cheaper, quieter choice. Our Portugal itinerary shows how to plan around the peaks.

Tourism businesses and investors. There is no published ET2035 target to underwrite against, so underwrite on the record. Receipts grew 8.0% a year from 2019 to 2025 and 3.2% in the first eight months of 2026. A plan that needs 6.2% a year sits between the two. The State Budget proposal cuts tourism spending by 2.8%, and Turismo de Portugal depends on gambling revenue for two thirds of its budget. The thresholds that would change this assessment are publication of the document with numeric indicators and a funding envelope, receipts growth in 2027 below 5%, and any official statement that fixes which GDP-share measure the 20% refers to. The new Lisbon airport tracker matters here too, because ET2035's horizon ends before ANA's own mid-2037 date for the new airport.

Journalists and analysts. The citable figures are these: ET27 set €26 billion and 80 million nights for 2027, both passed by 2024 on the series each was set on; receipts were €29,119 million in 2025; seasonality was 36.4% on INE's measure; Turismo de Portugal's 2026 budget is €570.1 million; the 2027 State Budget proposal for tourism is €517 million. Do not repeat that ET2035 was presented in December 2025, that it sets a €53 billion target, that tourism is 20% of GDP, or that the ET27 receipts target was €27 billion. The series finding this article adds is that Portuguese tourism targets with a named measure and year are met or missed in public, and targets in speeches are not.