Key takeaways
- Lisbon held 11,704 AL registrations in October 2026, down 37% on 2025 (Vizinhos em Lisboa from RNAL extractions); the council counted 11,779 active at 1 February 2026 after cancelling 6,765.
- On a total-stock base AL is 3.7% of Lisbon's roughly 316,700 dwellings (11,779 over a Census 2011 total scaled by −1.9%, derived); the council's 7.2% (1 Nov 2025) uses an unpublished base that cannot be reconstructed.
- Seven parishes held 15,778 of Lisbon's 20,094 registrations in November 2022 (78.5%) on about 26% of the dwellings (GEE Tema Económico 114, derived); Santa Maria Maior had 4,669 registrations against 4,564 households.
- INE's median new-lease rent in Lisbon was €17.79 per m² in Q2 2026 (+5.1%), the highest of 24 large municipalities, on a series rebuilt on 26 June 2026 that cannot be spliced with the old one.
- The same five years read +32.2% on the old INE basis (Q1 2020 to Q1 2025, ECO) and +46.4% on the revised basis (2020 to 2025, derived); the steepest rises, +14.6% in 2022 and +18.4% in 2023, came while the AL register was flat.
- Eurostat's house price index is +114.3% for Portugal and +40.7% for the EU since Q2 2019; Portugal led the EU in 2026 Q1 and Q2 but was second in 2025 (17.6% against Hungary's 18.3%).
- The "24–32%" Airbnb figure is a relative house-price gap in 2015 and Q1 2016 (Franco & Santos 2021), not a rent estimate; the only Lisbon quasi-experiment gives about −8.6% on prices, covers five treated areas, and has no rent result.
- No Banco de Portugal, NOVA or ISEG decomposition of Lisbon's rent or price rise by driver was found, and 48,018 vacant dwellings (Census 2021, via Vizinhos and Lusa) cannot be separated from AL units that stood empty in April 2021.
Lisbon cancelled 36.5% of its short-term rental register in February 2026 and by October held 11,704 registrations. INE's median rent for new leases in the city still rose 8.2% in the first quarter and 5.1% in the second, to €17.79 per square metre, the highest of Portugal's 24 largest municipalities.
Both numbers are right and they do not conflict. Alojamento local, known as AL, is about 3.7% of Lisbon's dwellings on a total-stock count (derived: 11,779 registrations over roughly 316,700 homes). Seven of the city's 24 parishes held 78.5% of the registrations in 2022 on 26% of the dwellings (derived). In Santa Maria Maior the registrations outnumbered the 4,564 households the 2021 Census counted. The citywide ratio is small and the local ratio is extreme, so the word density means very different things depending on where and how it is measured.
What nobody has done is split Lisbon's rent rise between AL and everything else. We found no Banco de Portugal, NOVA or ISEG decomposition for the city. The one Lisbon quasi-experiment measures house prices in five micro-areas and says nothing about rents. This article sets out the density figures on their real denominators, the two INE rent series that cannot be joined, the evidence on what AL does to housing, and ten circulating claims, one of them from our own files.
One word, thirteen ratios
Lisbon City Council measures AL density as registrations divided by permanent-residence dwellings. It published 7.5% in October 2024 and 7.2% on 1 November 2025, when the register held about 18,500 units. That implies a denominator near 257,000 homes (derived). The 2011 Census had about 235,700 dwellings of habitual residence (73% of 322,865, derived from rounded shares) and Lisbon's household count fell 0.5% between 2011 and 2021. The council's base is therefore a different count from either Census, and we could not reconstruct it from public data. No post-purge citywide ratio has been published.
A Census-based alternative is available. Lisbon had 322,865 classic family dwellings in 2011 and the 2021 count fell 1.9% (GEE Tema Económico 114), which gives about 316,700 (derived; the councillor for housing rounded it to 320,000). On that base the 11,779 active registrations of 1 February 2026 are 3.7% of all dwellings, and the 18,544 registrations before the purge were 5.9%. Vizinhos em Lisboa, an association of residents, counts 48,018 vacant dwellings from the 2021 Census, or 15.2% of the stock. AL is 24.4% of that vacant stock, and the city has 4.1 vacant homes for every AL registration (derived).
A registration is also not a rental. In 2023 only 11,447 of Lisbon's 19,917 registrations had proved activity (Ministry via Público, 22 December 2023). Commercial trackers that count listings instead of registrations disagree widely: AirDNA 15,792 active in August 2026, AirROI 13,896, GuestFavorites 11,272 and Airbtics 13,014 before the purge. Eurostat's platform-night series for Grande Lisboa counted 11,752,334 nights in 2025 (+2.0%) and 1,988,137 in Q1 2026 (−3.1%), against a national rise of 4.9%. The register, the listings and the nights are three different quantities, and the housing debate usually quotes whichever is largest.
Two cautions apply. The 48,018 reaches us through Vizinhos and Lusa rather than from an INE table, and councillor Filipa Roseta described it in 2022 as dwellings "without residents", which can be a wider class than INE's strict definition of vacant. And a Census cannot tell an empty flat from an AL unit. A dwelling with no resident is vacant or seasonal whatever its use, and the Census was taken in April 2021, with tourism halted. That is our inference, but it means high vacancy in the historic centre may partly be AL itself.
The comparison with other towns shows how little the ratio travels. Faro's draft rule uses 2.63% of all dwellings, Porto's containment parishes 40.9% of housing units, Lagos 41.4% of habitual-residence dwellings, and Nazaré 22.1% of second homes (derived). Lisbon's citywide 3.7% sits close to Faro. It is the concentration, not the average, that defines Lisbon. Our containment-zone explainer covers the 5% and 10% thresholds that follow from the council's own base.
Seven parishes carry the load
The GEE paper on AL in Lisbon, built on the 2021 Census and the register of 30 November 2022, lets us line the parishes up on one base. Santa Maria Maior had 4,669 registrations against 7,692 dwellings and Misericórdia 3,534 against 8,657. The seven parishes in the table below held 15,778 of the city's 20,094 registrations (78.5%) and 83,053 of roughly 316,700 dwellings (26%), both derived. Five of them had vacancy above 20% in the Census, up to 33.1% in Misericórdia.
| Parish | Dwellings 2021 | Vacant 2021 | AL registrations Nov 2022 | AL ÷ dwellings (derived) | CML ratio Nov 2025 | Status Apr 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Maria Maior | 7,692 | 31.4% | 4,669 | 60.7% | 66.9% | Absolute |
| Misericórdia | 8,657 | 33.1% | 3,534 | 40.8% | 43.8% | Absolute |
| Santo António | 8,252 | 25.3% | 1,671 | 20.2% | 25.1% | Absolute |
| São Vicente | 10,170 | 24.0% | 1,604 | 15.8% | 16.1% | Relative |
| Arroios | 20,848 | 18.7% | 2,313 | 11.1% | 13.5% | Relative |
| Estrela | 12,657 | 20.3% | 1,323 | 10.5% | 10.8% | Relative |
| Avenidas Novas | 14,777 | 15.3% | 664 | 4.5% | 6.6% | None |
| Seven parishes | 83,053 | — | 15,778 | 19.0% | — | — |
Vizinhos em Lisboa's October 2026 study puts 61% of today's AL in four parishes: Santa Maria Maior, Misericórdia, São Vicente and Santo António. It also reports 69 AL units per 100 occupied homes in Santa Maria Maior against 5 per 100 citywide. The method is not detailed in the press coverage, so treat those two ratios as an association's own count. Our derived comparison for Santa Maria Maior is 4,669 registrations in November 2022 against 4,564 households in April 2021, which mixes two dates and is only indicative.
Population pressure comes from several directions. AIMA counted 1,585,854 foreign residents at the end of 2025 and the Lisbon district held 605,895 of them, while the 2021 SEF report put 108,894 foreigners (20.0%) in the municipality. Observador rated the claim that half of Lisbon's residents are foreigners false. Our foreign residents analysis shows that INE and AIMA stock counts differ by about 11,700 and that the widely used 1.54 million included 286,302 pending cases.
The population side is better documented. Between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses Santa Maria Maior lost 21.6% of its residents, Misericórdia 26.0% and São Vicente 9.0% (EAPN Retrato Social de Lisboa, October 2024). Four central parishes lost more than 8,000 people, while six others gained 7,983 (Idealista News citing INE). The historic centre fell from about 160,000 residents in the 1940s to about 40,000 by 2018 (Quaternaire study for the three central juntas), so most of its decline predates AL. Citywide the Census shows 547,733 residents in 2011 and 544,851 in 2021, though one source gives 545,796 and the quoted percentage changes (−0.4%, −1.25%, −1.4%) fail the arithmetic. INE's revised estimate for 2024 is 575,739, which is a population revision of the kind we described in our tourism intensity analysis.
Rents on two INE bases
INE stopped publishing its new-contract rent indicator for more than a year and resumed on 26 June 2026 with a revised series built on Tax Authority data. According to Idealista News the revision brought in about 50% more contracts, including those reported by tenants. A secondary aggregator, Rendaok, says the series was corrected again on 29 September 2026. The consequence is that the old and new bases cannot be spliced. Lisbon's Q4 2024 median was €15.93 per square metre on the old basis, while the 2024 annual median on the new basis is €16.31, higher despite covering the whole year.
On the old basis Lisbon's median was €9.62 in 2017, €11.60 in 2018 and €11.96 in the second half of 2019. ECO measured a 32.2% rise between Q1 2020 and Q1 2025, the second-lowest of the 24 large municipalities. On the revised basis the annual median went from €11.54 in 2020 to €16.89 in 2025, a rise of 46.4%, and to €17.79 in Q2 2026 (+5.1% on a year earlier, INE via Observador, 29 September 2026). The same five-year question returns 32% or 46% depending on the series, and our derived 48.7% across the break (H2 2019 to Q2 2026) mixes two bases.
The yearly changes on the revised basis are −1.7% in 2021, +14.6% in 2022, +18.4% in 2023, +6.0% in 2024 and +3.6% in 2025 (derived). The sharpest rises came in 2022 and 2023, when Lisbon's register held between 19,651 (January 2022, about 3,500 of them inactive) and 19,259 (May 2024). Registrations are not active listings and the figures use different counting dates, so this does not clear AL. It does show that the timing of the rent rise does not follow the size of the register. Other drivers, from foreign demand to inflation and mortgage rates, also moved in those years, as the evidence section below sets out.
The purge itself left no visible dent. The register was cut by 36.5% on 1 February 2026 and the new-lease rent rose 8.2% in Q1 and 5.1% in Q2, slower but not lower. idealista's Lisbon rental supply fell 18% in Q1 and 27% in Q2 (Observador, 22 July 2026), which is a listings measure and not a count of homes. Our purge analysis found no evidence that any cancelled unit went back to long-term letting.
Asking rents tell a different story from signed leases. idealista's median asking rent for Lisbon city in September 2026 was €25.1 per square metre (+8.8%), about 41% above INE's Q2 figure of €17.79 (derived, mixing a month and a quarter). idealista re-based its series on 2 October 2026 and applied the change retroactively, which excludes seasonal lets and removes outliers. A June reading of €21.8 (−1.7%) that we carried in an earlier spine is a pre-revision vintage and should not be compared with the current series.
Existing contracts follow a separate rule. The annual update coefficient was 6.94% for 2024, 2.16% for 2025 and 2.24% for 2026 (Cuatrecasas, from the Diário da República notices). The Mais Habitação rent cap on new contracts, 2% above the previous rent, was approved for abolition by the Council of Ministers on 13 July 2026 (Idealista News). We could not confirm that the end has entered into force or find a measurement of the cap's effect.
Lisbon is the national outlier. INE's Q2 2026 median new-lease rent was €10.17 per square metre for Portugal and €15.24 for Grande Lisboa, so the city is 75% above the national figure (derived). In Q1 2026 Porto's metropolitan area was at €10.13 against Lisbon's €17.42, and Madeira at €12.78 in Q2. Rents are rising across the country, with the national median up 10.2% in Q2, faster than in Lisbon. That argues against reading Lisbon's rent path as an AL effect alone, since rents are also rising where AL is a much smaller share of the stock.
Prices and affordability
Eurostat's house price index (2015 = 100) stood at 301.43 for Portugal in Q2 2026 against 168.56 for the EU. That is +199.7% for Portugal since Q2 2015 and +68.8% for the EU, and +114.3% against +40.7% since Q2 2019 (derived). Portugal led the EU in the first two quarters of 2026 with annual rises of 17.8% and 16.5%. In 2025 as a whole it was second, 17.6% against Hungary's 18.3%, so the claim that Portugal has the fastest-rising prices in Europe holds only for the latest two quarters.
INE's median sale price in Lisbon municipality was €3,111 per square metre in Q1 2019, €4,875 in 2025 and €5,299 in Q2 2026. Buyers with a foreign tax domicile paid €6,588 against €5,143 for Portuguese-resident buyers in the 12 months to June 2026, 28.1% more (derived). The gross yield on those two INE medians is about 4.0% (price over annual rent of €213.5 per square metre is 24.8 times, derived), though the sold and rented dwellings are different sets.
Affordability measures split on who is counted. Eurostat's housing cost overburden rate for all Portuguese residents was 6.2% in 2025 against 7.7% for the EU. For tenants paying market rent it was 27.2% against 18.6%. The housing problem sits with renters and buyers rather than with owners, who are numerous and mostly mortgage-free. UBS placed Lisbon in the elevated-risk band of its 2026 Global Real Estate Bubble Index, its first year in the sample, with real prices up nearly 7% a year for a decade and about 10% in the last year. The ETUC ranks Lisbon second after Prague for a two-bedroom rent against the minimum wage. Its stated inputs, €1,710 and €1,073, give 159% against the 168% reported.
Lisbon has no current official wage series that we could find. The national average gross monthly pay was €1,694 in 2025 (INE via ECO) and the minimum wage is €920 over 14 payments, €1,073 a month on a 12-month basis. A 60 square metre flat at INE's Q2 rent costs €1,067 a month, which is 99.5% of the 12-month minimum-wage equivalent and 116% of the monthly €920 (derived). Banco de Portugal's study, reported by Lusa in March 2026, gives a rent-to-median-household-income ratio of 47% in early 2025 for the country, and a theoretical mortgage effort of 102% of median family income for a median Lisbon home in 2023. We could not read the primary document.
What the evidence says AL does
| Study | Place and period | Outcome | Effect | Caveat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franco & Santos (2021) | Portugal, 2014–2016 | House prices | +3.7% per 1 pp Airbnb share (municipalities); +3.2% (Lisbon and Porto parishes) | Early period; we read the abstract only |
| Peralta et al. (GEE 155, 2020) | Lisbon, ban of Nov 2018 | House prices | About −8.6%; two-bedroom flats about −20% | 5 treated areas, 12 clusters; prices only |
| Barron, Kung & Proserpio (2021) | United States | Rents and prices | +0.018% rent, +0.026% price per 1% more listings | Listings, not share; about one-fifth of rent growth |
| Garcia-López et al. | Barcelona | Rents; transaction prices | +1.9%, +5.3% average; +7%, +19% in top decile | Neighbourhood-level |
| Duso et al. | Berlin | Asked rents | At least 7 cents per m² per entire-home listing | Asked rents, not all rents |
| Banco de Portugal | Portugal | AL share of price or rent growth | No decomposition found | Names non-resident demand and low rates (2019) |
Franco and Santos remain the Portuguese reference, and their "24–32%" is the most misquoted number in the debate. Those figures are relative house-price gaps in a high-tourism parish in 2015 and Q1 2016. The headline elasticity is a 3.2% rise in parish house prices for each percentage point of Airbnb share in Lisbon and Porto. The Lisbon quasi-experiment on the November 2018 ban estimates house prices about 8.6% lower in affected areas. The Peralta design is thin, with five treated neighbourhoods and clustering on 12 parishes, and it covers prices only.
Foreign studies give rent effects of a few percent. Barcelona shows +1.9% on average and +7% in the top decile of Airbnb neighbourhoods. Berlin shows at least seven cents per square metre per nearby listing on asked rents. In the United States about one-fifth of rent growth is attributed to Airbnb. None of these transfers to Lisbon without a local estimate, and we found none for rents.
The competing explanations have numbers of their own. About 150,000 dwellings were completed in 2013–2022 against 630,000 in the previous decade (FFMS study via Observador, 2023). New construction carried 23% VAT in 2023 (before the 6% scheme of September 2025), social housing is about 2% of the stock, and the IMF's May 2026 statement says youth purchase support "is stimulating demand and contributing to the worsening of imbalances" while recommending that vacant homes and short-term rentals move into long-term letting. Foreign buyers made 2,655 of 40,909 purchases in summer 2024, 6.5% (derived), and took 18% of new housing loans in the first half of 2024 (Banco de Portugal). The FFMS speaker said that study did not measure AL in Portugal.
After the purge, what the money and the policy do
The tourist tax is the main municipal levy aimed at visitors. Lisbon charges €4 per night since 1 September 2024 and collected about €49.9 million in 2024 (Anuário Financeiro dos Municípios via ECO). Nationally, municipalities collected about €174 million in 2025. We found no housing earmark. In 2022 the council called the tax "bastante limitada" against a budget near €1 billion, about 3% (derived from €32 million expected). Our tourist-tax revenue analysis documents how little of the money is traceable to any use.
Public supply is small. Gebalis managed about 22,250 municipal dwellings in 2016, about 7% of Lisbon's stock (CML via OLCPL), and the council handed over 50 affordable-rent homes in Marvila in July 2025 with 105 more under construction. A 6,000-home target was moved to a later mandate (DN, undated). The national PRR counted 31,700 housing solutions delivered by 1 September 2026 against a 26,000 target, with no Lisbon figure published.
The containment rules concentrate on the parishes in the table above. Three parishes are in absolute containment and three in relative, and 18 have no restriction since April 2026. Santo António, Misericórdia and Santa Maria Maior would have to lose more than 60%, 77% and 85% of their registrations to leave absolute containment (derived). The parishes that moved did so because the cancellations lowered their ratios. The legal ground was missing insurance and no evidence of inactivity was published. Our alojamento local versus hotels analysis found that nationally AL nights fell 0.9% in 2025 while hotelaria rose 2.4%, so AL is not gaining on hotels either.
Ten claims, tested
The ten claims below recur in coverage of Lisbon's housing market. Five fail on definition: the rent, the ratio or the vintage means something different from what the headline implies. One is from our own files and was superseded when idealista re-based its series. The panel gives the verdict, the evidence and what survives.
The pattern across the panel is the same one our earlier work found for nights per resident and for the AL share of hotels. A figure becomes a claim when the denominator, the series or the vintage drops out. The two INE series, the two councils' bases and the two idealista vintages are all examples in this article.
What this means for travelers, businesses and analysts
Travelers. AL in Lisbon is concentrated in Santa Maria Maior, Misericórdia, São Vicente and Santo António, the parishes around Alfama, the Baixa and Graça. If you want a flat there, check the RNAL registration number on the listing. Commercial trackers disagree on how many Lisbon listings exist (11,272 to 15,792) against 11,779 registered, so a listing without a number is a risk. Hotels remain the simpler option in the centre, and our Lisbon where-to-stay guide and Lisbon travel guide set out the areas. Registrations in containment parishes lapse when the property is sold, so the supply there can only shrink over time.
Tourism businesses and investors. The register fell 36.5% in a quarter while platform nights in Grande Lisboa fell only 3.1% in Q1 (Eurostat), so the cancellations removed paperwork faster than demand. The gross yield is about 4.0% at INE medians, and sale prices rose 18.4% nationally in Q2. Containment rules in the seven central parishes cap new supply, which favours incumbents with grandfathered registrations, though registrations lapse on sale in the containment zones. What would change the read: a published post-purge parish ratio, publication of the RNAL open-data series by parish, the end of the new-contract rent cap taking effect, and INE confirming that the rebuilt rent series is stable. The IMF's call to move vacant and short-term homes to long-term letting is the clearest signal of the policy direction.
Journalists and analysts. The citable figures are 11,704 AL registrations (Vizinhos em Lisboa from RNAL extractions, October 2026), 11,779 active on 1 February 2026 (CML), INE's €17.79 per square metre for Q2 2026 (+5.1%), Eurostat's HPI at +114.3% since Q2 2019 against +40.7% for the EU, and the Census 2011 and 2021 parish population changes. Do not repeat the 24–32% as a rent figure, the claim that Lisbon lost 20,000 residents to tourism, the 28% foreign-buyer share without its definition, or the ETUC 168% without its inputs. When quoting AL density, state the denominator: 3.7% of all dwellings, 7.2% on the council's base before the purge, 60.7% in Santa Maria Maior. This article adds a thirteen-denominator ladder, the parish decomposition and the rent series break to the comparative spine, and it points to the gap that matters most: nobody has measured AL's share of Lisbon's rent rise.
Data & sources
Period covered: Census 2011 to October 2026 (focus: 2020 – Q2 2026)
- Eurostat house price index (prc_hpi_q, prc_hpi_a) · Portugal and EU HPI, 2015 to Q2 2026 and rankings Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- Eurostat housing cost overburden (ilc_lvho07c) · Overburden rate, Portugal and EU, 2019–2025 Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- INE new-contract rents via Observador and Idealista News · Lisbon median rent per m², Q1 and Q2 2026; series restart 26 Jun 2026 Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- idealista rent price reports · Asking rents Lisbon city, district and Portugal, Sep 2026 Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- GEE Tema Económico 114: AL in Lisbon · Census 2021 dwellings, vacancy and AL by parish at 30 Nov 2022 Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- Vizinhos em Lisboa via Diário Imobiliário and Lusa · 11,704 AL registrations, 69,070 beds, 48,018 vacant dwellings, 9 Oct 2026 Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- Observador: Moedas extends suspension of new AL licences · CML AL ratio 7.2% of homes, 5 Nov 2025 Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- Franco & Santos (2021), Regional Science and Urban Economics · Airbnb effect on house prices in Portugal Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- Peralta et al., GEE Paper 155 · Lisbon quasi-experiment on the November 2018 AL ban Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- Barron, Kung & Proserpio (SSRN 3006832) · US elasticities of rents and prices to Airbnb listings Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- Garcia-López et al., IEB WP 2019/05 · Barcelona rent and price effects of Airbnb Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- Duso et al., DIW Discussion Paper 1890 · Berlin Airbnb and asked rents Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- Cuatrecasas: rent update coefficient 2026 · Coefficients 6.94% (2024), 2.16% (2025), 2.24% (2026) Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- PLMJ: new changes to local lodging rules (DL 76/2024) · AL regime after DL 76/2024 Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- The Portugal News: IMF on youth home-buying support · IMF Article IV statement, 6 May 2026 Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
- ECO: tourist tax revenue · Lisbon €4 per night, 2024 revenue about €49.9M Accessed 25 Oct 2026.
Methodology
We compiled Lisbon housing and short-term rental figures from Eurostat (house price index and housing cost overburden, read through its API on 25 October 2026), INE data reproduced by the press (ine.pt is blocked from our tools), the Lisbon municipal council as reported by Observador, Lusa and idealista, GEE and academic papers. Where a primary document was not read, such as the Banco de Portugal study, the Banco de Portugal tables and the OECD and IMF texts, the table or text says so.
Limits that govern the article: INE's new-contract rent series was rebuilt in June 2026 and again on 29 September 2026 and cannot be spliced with the old one; the council's AL ratio uses a denominator that is not published; the Census count of 48,018 vacant dwellings reaches us through an advocacy association and Lusa; Lisbon's total dwellings (about 316,700) is derived from a rounded percentage; parish AL counts are from 30 November 2022 and Census data from April 2021; and no Lisbon wage series was available.
Contested and unverified claims were tested against the primary source where one was reachable and are reported with both values: the 25% and 35% EC overvaluation figures, the 8.9% Q2 2026 Lisbon sale-price growth read two ways, the 544,851 and 545,796 Census populations, and the 28% foreign-buyer share. A claim from our own files was corrected in the body. Derived figures are marked as derived and show their inputs.
Notes on the data
Official data that does not exist at the level this article needs: a published post-purge AL ratio by parish or for the city, the council's denominator, a yearly Lisbon AL series for 2014–2025, RNAL counts by parish and type, Lisbon wages, Lisbon rent-to-income ratios from an official source, Lisbon housing cost overburden (Eurostat gives only national and degree-of-urbanisation figures), evictions and non-renewals for Lisbon, golden-visa property purchases by municipality, Lisbon's foreign-buyer share, and a count of Renda Acessível homes delivered.
Contested figures with both values: the Lisbon Census 2021 population is 544,851 or 545,796 depending on source, and INE's revised 2024 estimate is 575,739; the council's pre-purge base is 18,544 (derived), the Ministry's 18,537 and ALEP's 18,600; the EC valuation gap is 25% (RTP/Lusa, 16 Dec 2025) or 35% (Idealista, 4 Nov 2025); Lisbon's Q2 2026 sale-price growth is 8.9% as a year-on-year rate or as a deceleration in percentage points, and we did not use it; and 11,779, 11,774 and 11,704 AL registrations come from the council, ECO and Vizinhos on different dates.
Claims that failed verification: Airbnb raising Lisbon rents by 24–32%; Lisbon losing 20,000 residents to tourism; banning AL cutting rents by a stated percentage; the ETUC 168% (its own inputs give 159%); the idealista June 2026 Lisbon asking rent of €21.8 (superseded vintage, ours). Derived figures: all ratios marked derived, the 316,700 dwellings, the 78.5% and 26% shares, the rent changes and the 4.0% yield. Self-reported or association figures: Vizinhos em Lisboa's 61%, 69 per 100 and 69,070 beds; Rendaok's annual series; Idealista's quoted national and Lisbon figures; Lusa's report of the Banco de Portugal study.
Frequently asked questions
How many AL registrations does Lisbon have in 2026?
Lisbon had 11,704 registrations and 69,070 beds in October 2026, according to Vizinhos em Lisboa's analysis of four RNAL extractions, down 37% on 2025. The council counted 11,779 active on 1 February 2026 after cancelling 6,765 for missing insurance.
What percentage of Lisbon homes are short-term rentals?
It depends on the base. The council reported 7.2% on 1 November 2025 on an unpublished base of permanent-residence dwellings. On all dwellings we derive 3.7% for February 2026 (11,779 over about 316,700). In Santa Maria Maior the figure is 60.7% of dwellings on 2022 registrations.
Have Lisbon rents fallen since the AL purge?
No. INE's median new-lease rent for Lisbon was €17.42 per m² in Q1 2026 (+8.2%) and €17.79 in Q2 (+5.1%). Growth slowed from the 14.6% and 18.4% annual rises of 2022 and 2023, but there is no fall. idealista's listed rental supply fell 18% in Q1 and 27% in Q2.
How much is the average rent in Lisbon per square metre?
INE gives €17.79 per m² for new leases in Q2 2026, the highest of 24 large municipalities. idealista's asking median for Lisbon city was €25.1 in September 2026. Asking rents are listings and run about 41% above signed rents (derived, mixed periods).
Did Airbnb raise Lisbon rents by 24 to 32 per cent?
No. The 24.3% and 32.3% in Franco and Santos (2021) are relative house-price gaps in high-tourism parishes in 2015 and Q1 2016. The paper's elasticity is about 3.2% per percentage point of Airbnb share for parish house prices in Lisbon and Porto.
How many vacant homes does Lisbon have?
The 2021 Census count reported through Vizinhos em Lisboa and Lusa is 48,018, about 15.2% of dwellings (derived). It is about four times the AL register, but it may include dwellings without residents that INE classes differently, and AL units can be recorded as vacant.
Is Lisbon one of the least affordable cities in Europe?
On several measures yes. UBS put Lisbon in the elevated bubble-risk band in 2026, and ETUC ranks it second after Prague for rent against the minimum wage. Eurostat shows 27.2% of Portuguese market-rent tenants overburdened against 18.6% in the EU. No source gives a Lisbon-only wage base.
Has Lisbon banned short-term rentals?
No. Existing registrations remain valid. New registrations are barred or limited in containment parishes where AL reaches 10% (absolute) or 5% (relative) of dwellings on the council's base, in force since 6 December 2025. Three parishes are in absolute containment and three in relative since April 2026.
Are Portuguese house prices rising fastest in the EU?
In 2026 Q1 and Q2 yes, at 17.8% and 16.5% (Eurostat). In 2025 as a whole Hungary was ahead at 18.3% against 17.6%. Since Q2 2015 Portuguese prices are up 199.7% against 68.8% for the EU (derived).