Portugal's Foreign Residents: 1.59M on AIMA's Count, 1.60M on INE's, and the Old 1.54M Included Pending Cases

What the 1.54M counted

AIMA's report for 2024, published around 16 October 2025, splits the stock into categories. Holders of titles valid after 1 July 2024 are 71.0% of the total (derived). The other 29.0% are people who are in the system without a current card: processed pending manifestações de interesse (18.5%), expired CPLP authorisations (6.0%), temporary protection beneficiaries (4.0%), expired titles with fees paid (0.5%) and a handful of extended long-stay visas. AIMA's methodology note says the stock "includes valid titles, regularisation processes in progress, and authorisations under specific legal instruments".

The 2025 report groups the stock differently. Valid titles, defined as valid after 1 July 2025, are 1,324,411, or 83.5% of 1,585,854 (derived). The residual 261,443 (derived) holds expired titles with fees paid (76,907), temporary protection (66,740), manifestações de interesse nearing completion (50,695), expired CPLP authorisations (42,521) and processed family reunification cases (24,476). Those categories add to 1,585,750, which is 104 short of the published total. AIMA's own PDF blocked automated access, so the 2025 composition comes from the Diário de Leiria report of 22 September 2026 and we could not see where the 104 sit.

The practical reading is that the card stock grew far more than the headline. Valid titles rose by 228,241 (derived), or 20.8%, while the total rose by 42,157 (2.7%). The task force turned pending cases into cards, and the permit counts in the tracker above show how. If the two years' definitions match, which the press descriptions suggest but we could not confirm, a reader comparing 1,543,697 with 1,585,854 sees a 2.7% rise, and a reader comparing valid titles sees a 20.8% rise.

Two official counts, 11,685 apart

AIMA counts people in its administrative system on 31 December. INE publishes an annual estimate of the resident population by nationality. Since 22 June 2026 that estimate rests on administrative sources, with AIMA records as the main input, checked against Social Security, tax and education records, and INE revised its 2021 to 2024 estimates on the same method. Estimates up to 2020 are final and unchanged.

The totals track each other closely. INE's end-2024 foreign population is 1,538,426 (derived from its published 2025 change), against AIMA's 1,543,697. For 2025 INE shows a rise of 59,113 against AIMA's 42,157, which leaves the end-2025 gap at 11,685. The nationalities diverge more. AIMA counts 493,622 Brazilians and INE 574,195, a difference of 80,573 (derived). The United Kingdom and Italy run the other way, with AIMA at 47,726 and 42,418 against INE's 38,640 and 32,784.

INE also revised the denominator. The total resident population for the end of 2024 was first published as 10,749,635 and now stands at 11,387,222, which is 637,587 higher. Every foreign-share figure published before June 2026 uses the old base. Census 2021 counted 542,165 foreign citizens, 5.2% of residents. Neither count is a foreign-born population, and we found no 2025 foreign-born stock, so "immigrants" in the strict sense cannot be sized here.

The jump from 2022 to 2024 is mostly a break in the series

The headline history looks like a boom: 388,731 in 2015, 590,348 in 2019, 1,044,606 in 2023 and 1,543,697 in 2024. The raw step from 2023 to 2024 is 499,091 people, or 47.8% (derived). Most of it is a revision. In its 2024 report AIMA restated 2023 to 1,304,833, which is 260,227 above what it published a year earlier, and restated 2022 from 781,915 to 992,837. Observador quoted AIMA on 16 October 2025 calling the earlier figure a statistical error, with more than 300,000 people unidentified in the 2023 data. On the restated base, growth in 2024 was 238,864 people, or 18.3% (derived).

The restated figures are provisional. AIMA's Observatório das Migrações describes them as necessariamente provisórios and says they need INE confirmation, and a footnote gives 1,544,168 as the sum of municipal values, 471 above the national total with no explanation. Eurostat's count of valid permits held by non-EU citizens has its own break: 642,710 in 2023, 1,091,999 in 2024 and 1,122,061 in 2025. We found no Eurostat note explaining the 2024 step.

The defensible long-run statement is a range with a flagged break. From 2015 to 2025 the stock multiplied about 4.1 times (derived, SEF 388,731 to AIMA 1,585,854). On INE's revised series foreign residents were 7.06% of the population at the end of 2021 and 13.98% at the end of 2025. Over those four years the resident population rose by 824,914 and the foreign population by 849,384, so foreign residents account for 103% of the growth and the number of Portuguese nationals fell by about 24,500 (derived).

Growth has slowed, and permits are not people

AIMA's stock grew 2.7% in 2025, against 18.3% in 2024 like for like and 31.4% in 2023 (ECO, 23 September 2026). INE's revised net migration was 371,277 in 2022, 307,288 in 2023, 216,629 in 2024 and 70,862 in 2025. The natural balance was negative 34,053, so the population grew by 36,809 people, or 0.32%. Migration is still positive and the pace has fallen by two thirds in a year.

Flows and stock tell different stories. Eurostat records 310,639 first residence permits in 2025, up 154.9% on 121,872 in 2024, and Portugal ranked third in the EU per head after Malta and Cyprus. Over the same year the foreign stock rose by 59,113 on INE's count, about 19% of the first permits (derived). Our reading is that most 2025 permits went to people who were already counted, or whose cases were pending. That reading is an inference, though it fits the task-force output in the tracker, which issued 458,000 cards by May 2026.

A reconciliation gap remains. AIMA's president told RTP on 26 October 2025 that 386,463 titles had been issued by 22 October, more than the annual report's 337,880 new titles for the whole year. The two use different definitions and we could not reconcile them. Naturalisation takes people out of the foreign stock at a slow rate: Eurostat counts 20,624 acquisitions of citizenship by residents in 2024, about 1.3% of the stock (derived). The ten-year rule in force since 19 May 2026 will slow that further, as the nationality piece explains.

Who they are: Brazil, Angola and India

Brazilians are the largest group on every count: 493,622 on AIMA's (31.1%) and 574,195 on INE's (35.9%). Angola moved to second place in 2025 with 99,050, India fell from second to third with 91,405, and Ukraine and Cape Verde follow. The top five hold 839,971 people, 53.0% of the stock, against 48.1% in 2019 when the leaders were Brazil, Cape Verde, the United Kingdom, Romania and Ukraine (derived). INE puts 89.5% of foreign residents outside the EU27, a group that includes the UK.

South Asian numbers fell in 2025. India dropped 7.3% and Nepal 8.2%, while Angola rose 7.3%, Guinea-Bissau 9.9% and Cape Verde 8.4%. CPLP nationals were 745,422 in 2024 (48.3%, derived) and AIMA says almost half in 2025; the five largest CPLP countries sum to 757,412, or 47.8%. That matters because the 7-year citizenship path applies to this group, while most others now face 10 years.

Northern European groups are small. The United Kingdom counts 47,726 residents (AIMA 2025), France 29,009 and Germany 24,868 (both 2024), Spain 22,130 (2024), the Netherlands 15,039 (2024) and the United States 21,293 in 2025, up 10.6%. Growth multiples from 2019, such as Angola 4.4 times and Brazil 3.3 times, compare SEF titles with AIMA's wider stock and are upper bounds. Census 2021 found that 8% of foreign residents were 65 or older, against 25% of Portuguese, and AIMA's 2025 report puts the 65-plus share at 6.3%. Most foreign residents are working-age.

Where they live: four districts hold 70%

Lisbon, Setúbal, Porto and Faro together hold 1,114,402 foreign residents, 70.3% of the AIMA stock (derived). Lisbon district alone has 605,895, or 38.2%, and its count fell by 284 in 2025. Growth moved north and across the river: Porto district added 9,269 (5.9%) and Setúbal 4,944 (2.9%), while Faro was flat at 167,124 and Beja lost 1,233 (3.3%). Observador and Postal print 166,124 for Faro. Barlavento gives 167,124, and the four-district total only adds up with the higher figure, so we treat 166,124 as a typographical error.

The Algarve has the highest foreign share of any region. INE counted 161,556 foreigners there at the end of 2025, 27.9% of residents, against 546,419 in Grande Lisboa, which is 22.6% of its residents but 34.2% of all foreigners in the country. The Algarve is also where the tourism and residency stories meet, a pattern we trace in the Algarve statistics article. Madeira had 19,371 foreign residents on a regional estimate, with Venezuelans (3,004), Brazilians (1,963), Nepalis (1,534), Germans (1,354) and Britons (1,192) leading, and 13.6% of Porto Santo's population was foreign.

Municipal shares need care. AIMA's 2025 municipal counts divided by INE's population give Odemira 50.0% foreign, Albufeira 41.6% and Lagos 39.6%. For Odemira four numbers are in circulation: about 28% at Census 2021, 36.45% in AIMA's 2022 annual report, 68.7% for 2024 and 50.04% for 2025 on the AIMA-over-INE method. The denominators moved, with Odemira's INE population at 33,866 in 2024 and 44,043 in 2025, and AIMA's numerator includes pending cases. Quote a municipal share only with its year and method. Madeira and the Azores have an unresolved gap: Ponta Delgada alone is reported at 11,719 foreign residents in 2025, while AIMA counted 8,197 for the whole Azores in 2024.

Work: 1.1 million contributors and a hospitality workforce

Social Security recorded 1,115,541 foreign contributors at some point in 2025, up 6.4%, which is 19.7% of individual contributors on ECO's count and 20.15% on Observador's. A December snapshot gives about 840,000 contributors, 17.6% of the total, only 3,375 more than in December 2024. The year-average and the December figures count different things, and the December series suggests a plateau. The Ministry of Labour claims about 45,000 net additional foreign contributors by end-2025. Expresso, via ECO, reports that 162,252 foreign workers' records ended with no later record, up 66%.

The sectors are the ones that run tourism. Renascença counts 129,000 foreign workers in accommodation and restaurants, 122,000 in administrative and support services such as cleaning and security, and 117,000 in construction. In agriculture 84,982 foreign contributors are 53.3% of the sector on Observador's base and 41% on Renascença's. Beja district has about 35,000, nearly 40% of its contributors. No official figure gives the foreign share of hospitality workers. The only hospitality-specific study we found, a preliminary KIPT and AHETA report in the Algarve, says about 90% of immigrant tourism workers there come from Brazil, India and Nepal and puts the post-pandemic shortage at about 45,000 jobs (Dinheiro Vivo, 11 November 2024).

The fiscal balance is positive. Foreign contributors paid €4,149 million in 2025, 13.7% to 14% of the total, and received about €822 million to €827 million in benefits, 11.1% of the total, a net of more than €3 billion. ECO puts the cumulative net for 2015 to 2025 at €16.3 billion. ECO also prints "contributory benefits" of €430 million, which conflicts with the other sources and is probably a subset. Foreigners aged 25 to 64 had an employment rate of 76.7% in 2024 against 81.9% for nationals, and unemployment of 11.5% against 5.0%. The minimum wage rose to €920 a month on 1 January 2026 from €870.

Residents and tourists are counted in different places

INE's tourism figures split guests by country of habitual residence. On our reading, a Brazilian resident of Portugal who books a hotel is a resident guest and is excluded from non-resident nights, while a relative flying in from São Paulo is a non-resident tourist. We could not retrieve the INE metadata text to confirm the rule, so treat the mechanism as an inference. INE reports resident nights of 25.1 million in 2025 (up 5.4%) out of 82.1 million, and no published split shows how many of those belong to foreign residents.

Table 3 sets the residents beside the tourists for six markets. The UK has 211 registered nights per resident and the United States 256. Brazil has about 5. Brazil also has 3.1 tourists per resident (1,510,300 INE tourists to 493,622 residents, derived). These figures are consistent with a Brazilian tourist flow that is heavily tied to family and resident networks, as our Brazilian tourists piece argued, but no source in this article measures the share of visits to resident relatives, and we make no causal claim.

For the British market the pattern is the opposite. The UK tourists article shows 10.06 million nights in 2025, and the 47,726 British residents are a small fraction of that volume. Tourism markets and residence markets overlap in a few places and are different populations in most. A hotelier sizing demand from the foreign-resident stock would be wrong, and so would a housing analyst using tourist nights.

Housing, investors and the small segments

The headline residency routes for wealthy foreigners are small against a labour-driven stock. Golden visas granted in 2025 were 2,685, a record and 0.17% of the stock (derived); the 18,254 granted since 2012 are 1.1%, and grants are not current holders. Our golden visa statistics article covers the money. Foreign degree students were 57,581 at the end of 2025, 3.6% of the INE stock (derived, and some are EU citizens). We found no verified count for D7, D8 or IFICI holders. A D8 figure of 9,322 applications and 7,664 issued circulates in our files and could not be verified in any press piece we opened, so it is not used.

Non-resident buyers are a different group from foreign residents. INE recorded 8,471 homes bought by people living abroad in 2025, down 13.3%, the third annual fall, worth €3.4 billion and about 5.0% of transactions (derived). The Algarve took 29.7% of those purchases and 42.4% of their value. EU buyers paid an average of €335,640 and non-EU buyers €470,277, against €234,120 for residents. Foreign residents appear in the 95% resident share. We found no quantified source linking foreign residents to alojamento local supply or rents, so we draw no connection between the two.

Outlook: the projections are already behind the data

INE's 2024-2100 projections, published in September 2025, put the population at a peak of about 10.9 million in 2029 and 8.3 million in 2100, with 6.0 million in 2100 if there were no migration. They were built on the pre-revision base. The population estimate for the end of 2025 is already 11,424,031, above the projected peak, so the projections will need re-issuing. No 2026 stock figure exists: INE's next estimate arrives in June 2027 and AIMA's next annual report in autumn 2027. The last administrative extension of expired residence documents ended on 15 April 2026, so the next AIMA stock should show how many of the 76,907 expired-with-fees cases were renewed.

What this means for travelers, businesses and analysts

Travelers. Foreign residents are 14% of the population nationally and 27.9% in the Algarve, so the people serving your meal or cleaning your room are as likely to be Brazilian, Indian, Nepali or Angolan as Portuguese. The visitors in the same hotel lobbies are counted in a different set of statistics. Our Algarve travel guide covers where the resident and visitor populations meet.

Tourism businesses and investors. The foreign resident base is a labour supply and a domestic customer segment of 1.6 million people, not a visitor market. Labour supply grew slowly in 2025, with December contributors up 3,375, so the 45,000-job Algarve shortage will not close on current flows. Thresholds that would change the assessment are December Social Security contributors above 850,000, AIMA valid titles above 1.4 million, and an INE 2026 estimate that shows net migration below the 2025 level of 70,862. An investor underwriting hospitality wages should note that the minimum wage rose 5.7% in January 2026 (derived from €870 to €920).

Journalists and analysts. Safe figures: AIMA 1,585,854 (end-2025, +2.7%), INE 1,597,539 (14.0% of 11,424,031), valid titles 1,324,411, Brazil 493,622 on AIMA and 574,195 on INE, 1,115,541 foreign contributors in 2025 and 840,000 in December. Do not repeat "1.54 million" as current, "one in six", "15%" or "20%", the 47.8% growth of 2024 as real growth, or Census 2021 at 662,000 (that is the SEF stock for 2020). Always name the source, because the AIMA and INE counts differ by nationality. The series finding this adds is that a resident count and a tourist count are separate measurements of overlapping people, and the foreign-resident column now sits in our comparative spine beside nights per resident.